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The Duke'$ Sports Since 1998 May 18, 2013
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Back With a Vengeance!!
Thursday 3-0 Sweep!!
12-6 Top Daily Play Run
Insiders On 8-3 Roll~
83-46-1 Best Bet (3.5* or higher) Tear!
111-76-1 Top Daily Play Roll
2012: Football:
NFL: 58-40-5 (+30.00 Units) on Year!
NCAA: 58-37-3
196 Week Run of +390.45 Units
345-241-15 Top Daily Play Run
This Week in Review: -2.00 Units Last Week: +3.45 Units
Complimentary MLB Premium for Sunday: 5/12/2013:
Oakland Under (7') [ Milone/Saunders ] for 3 Units *** Winner
A's/Mariners 4:10: Good value with the "under" based on some pretty strong spot trends. The A's, which
this season have hit lefties well, should continue a recent struggle driving in runs with Crisp and Reddick
on the DL. Moreover, Joe Saunders, who has gotten battered on the road this season, sports a sweet
0.81 ERA at Safeco; furthermore, Saunders controls a very respectable 13-6 mark with a 3.57 ERA
against Oakland. On the other hand, the Mariners sport a sluggish .238 BA against lefties and have
recently gotten virtually nothing out of their cleanup hitter Morse -- stuck in a 1 of 18 slump. The A's
starter Milone is 1-5 O/U against Seattle. This series is 4-10 O/U in Seattle. And the home plate umpire
Bellinos is 15-34-2 O/U in his last 51. "Under" the call.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Monday: 5/6/2013:
Golden State Under (203') for 2 Units ** Loss
Golden State/San Antonio 9:35: Tendencies reveal that this game would be lower scoring than the
posted total. The Warriors are 3-9 O/U under Jackson when 3+ days rest and 2-5 O/U on the road
against a team with a winning home record. Moreover, this series is 1-4 O/U in San Antonio, including
combined totals of 197, 183 and 198 over the last three games, respectively. The Spurs are 0-5-1 O/U
on 3+ days rest and 5-11 O/U coming off SU win of 10+. We'll look for two the of Western Conference's
best coaches -- Jackson and Popovich to have their men well prepared defensively. Value with the
"Under".
Complimentary NBA Premium for Friday: 5/3/2013:
Oklahoma City (+1') for 2.5 Units **' Winner
Oklahoma City/Houston 9:35: It's about time for Okla City to adjust to life without Westbrook. Houston's
defense, which was below the NBA average during the regular season in allowing 103 points per game,
has at times doubled and even tripled Durant. We'll look for the basketball IQ to kick in for the Thunder
tonight as Durant should get more scoring support. On the other hand, the hot shooting Rockets' field
goal percentage is bound to cool down. Perimeter based teams which rely on three point shots routinely
gradually fade against well disciplined defenses. I don't believe Houston can sustain the high percentage
they're shooting. The Thunder are 8-1 ATS on the road against winning home teams and 22-8 ATS off
an ATS loss. Moreover, they're 10-4 ATS after allowing 100+. OC the call.
Complimentary NBA Playoff Premium for Tuesday: 4/30/2013:
Memphis (+5') for 2.5 Units **' Winner
Grizzlies/Clippers 10:35: I don't like how Del Negro is utilizing his bench and his defensive scheme is
questionable. Los Angeles has the bench advantage with veteran players but they're not utilized in the
prime spots. And it was apparent in the last two games that Randolph and Gasol were having their way
inside the paint without much resistance from the tall and athletic frontline of Los Angeles. The Grizzlies'
defense, however, is disciplined. We'll look for the Memphis winning momentum to carry over tonight.
Memphis is 5-1 ATS after scoring 100+ and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road tilts. The Clippers, however,
are a mere 5-11 ATS off a SU loss of 10+ and have shown tendencies of playing confused off these big
losses. And uncertainty will cause hesitation which leads to confusion and mistakes/turnovers. We'll look
for Memphis to stay poised on the road and continue to cover in this series (4-2 ATS in series).
Complimentary NBA Playoff Premium for Wednesday: 4/24/2013:
Los Angeles Lakers Under (188') for 2 Units ** Loss
Lakers/Spurs 9:35: Spurs defense was solid in Game 1 but defensive minded Popovich knows there is
plenty of room for improvement. And give Popovich and the Spurs two days to prepare, they're likely to
get it done defensively; after all, San Antonio is 1-11 O/U with 2 days rest. The Spurs know they could
have done a better job in the low block where Los Angeles banged out 40 points. And the Lakers'
perimeter shooting should continue to dry up. World Peace and Nash are battling knee and hip injuries
which limits their lift and mobility. On the other hand, the Lakers' defense should adjust to the 17 fast
break points they allowed. Los Angeles is 17-35 O/U on 2 days rest. This series is 6-20 O/U and 7-21
O/U in San Antonio. Value still with "Under".
Complimentary MLB Premium for Sunday: 4/21/2013:
Los Angeles Angels (-112) for 2.5 Units **' Winner
Tigers/Angels 3:35: Angels starting to show signs of improvement at the plate. Los Angeles has driven in
24 runs over last three games. We'll look for Los Angeles to follow up with run production on Fister who is
just 3-7 on the road when the total is set at 7 to 8'. Los Angeles is on a 6-0 run in this series and sports a
38-14 run at home vs the Tigers. We'll look for southpaw C.J. Wilson to keep the Tigers' bats cold.
Detroit controls a poor 6-18 mark vs lefties. Angels the call.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Wednesday: 4/17/2013:
Houston Over (203') for 3 Units *** Loss
Los Angeles 10:35: A concern with Houston's defense as they prepare for playoffs. Their seeding is still
in question and in danger of dropping to #8 if Los Angeles wins tonight. Los Angeles, the big market
team, is definitely getting the benefit of the doubt from referees over the last few games; after all, the free
throw disparity is quite evident if you look at the numbers. And I don't believe that will change tonight.
We'll look for free throws, which aid "over" players, to be abundant tonight -- with Los Angeles getting a
major share of the helping hand. The Lakers' defense, however, is a sore spot and should allow the
Rockets to stay in this one. This series has been high scoring at Staples Center in the last five games to
the tune of an average of 219 with range of 207 to 222. Like the value with the "over".
Complimentary NBA Premium for Sunday: 4/14/2013:
Dallas (-3) for 3 Units *** Winner
Dallas/New Orleans 6:00: Dallas will not be going to the playoffs but they're still battling to reach .500 and
bring out the razors. New Orleans, however, should show weakness defensively in their interior and coast
through their remaining games now that #1 overall selection Anthony Davis (knee sprain) is on the shelf.
Mavericks are a solid 20-6 ATS on the road and 8-2 ATS vs a team with a winning % less than .400. And
although New Orleans is showing fight, Dallas has covered 4 of its last 5 and should close strong here.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Friday: 4/5/13:
Memphis (+2') for 2 Units ** Winner
Grizzlies/Lakers 10:35: I realize the importance of this game for the Lakers, which are desperately trying
to hold on to the final playoff spot in the West; however, Memphis is looking to improve their seeding too.
The Grizzlies are battling Denver for the West's #4 seed. Whereas the Lakers are battling through
injuries to key personnel (Nash & World Peace)the Grizzlies are relatively healthy. Zach Randolph is
elevating his game and Tayshaun Prince has been a solid addition on both sides of the floor since
coming over from Detroit. And I like the backcourt matchup with Conley and Allen over Blake and Meeks.
We'll look for the Grizzlies to deliver again in this series.
Complimentary NCAA Sweet 16 for Friday: 3/29/13:
Florida Gulf Coast (+13) for 2.5 Units **' Winner
FGCU/Florida 9:55: Respectable value with the upstart Eagles who can spread the floor well, create open
looks and transition superbly; moreover, their defense has improved dramatically in post-season action;
as a matter of fact, the Eagles have held opponents below 45% in 14 of their last 16 games; furthermore,
they've locked down opponents to 39.3% over their last 5 games. And Georgetown and San Diego State
are no slouches. I do, however, realize this will be FGCU's strongest test of the tourney. The Gators can
run, defend and play a half court game extremely well; however, the Eagles have confidence and playing
relaxed with efficiency on both ends of the floor. FGCU's PG Brett Comer is dishing the ball at an amazing
rate while Sherwood Brown and Bernard Thompson have consistently played at a high level all month.
Florida will have the size advantage but we'll look for the Eagles to space the floor and utilize their
athleticism when the Gators' bigs are in. With the Eagles at 9-0 ATS on a neutral floor, we'll look for
FGCU to cover.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Monday: 3/18/2013:
Boston (+5') for 3 Units *** Winner
Miami/Boston 8:05: Sure, Miami heard the Celtics' players dismiss their 22 game win streak and will
clearly be up for this game; however, physically, the Heat may be running on fumes late. Miami is playing
in its third road game in four days and not the deepest of NBA benches. The Celtics are dangerous at
home and will probably see, at least, Garnett (adductor) dress and attempt to play to give Boston a
psychological boost. We all know Boston stopped Houston's 22 game streak in 2007-08 and the Celtics'
pride remains high. The Heat sport a poor 2-11 ATS mark in Boston and we'll grab the points at home
where Boston has covered 10 of its last 11.
Complimentary NCAA Hoops Premium for Friday 3/8/2013
Kent State (+9) for 2 Units ** Winner
Kent State/Akron 7:00: Akron has had a nice run this season -- mainly to the superior point guard play of
Alex Abreu and the inside presence of Zeke Marshall. Abreu (suspended), however, will be forced to
defer his spot to inexperienced Carmelo Betancourt who has one start with season stats of 1.8 ppg and
1.4 apg. We're going to look for the Zips' chemistry to be altered and struggle against the hungry
Flashes. Kent State is on a 5-1 ATS run and sport a respectable 9-3 ATS road ledger. They're 0-5 ATS
in their last 5 vs Akron but should be able to sneak inside the number tonight with the sudden dramatic
event of the Abreu arrest.
Thursday 3-0 Sweep!!
12-6 Top Daily Play Run
Insiders On 8-3 Roll~
83-46-1 Best Bet (3.5* or higher) Tear!
111-76-1 Top Daily Play Roll
2012: Football:
NFL: 58-40-5 (+30.00 Units) on Year!
NCAA: 58-37-3
196 Week Run of +390.45 Units
345-241-15 Top Daily Play Run
This Week in Review: -2.00 Units Last Week: +3.45 Units
- Thursday: 3-0 Sweep! Top Daily Play -- Giants (-101), Spurs (-1') & Knicks (-5') Deliver!
- Wednesday: Top Daily Play -- Milwaukee Under (8) Hits in Winning Premium Day
- Tuesday: Sluggish Day
- Monday: Tough Break w/ Okla City (+4') in OT...Insiders Stay Hot!
- Sunday: 3-0 Sweep: 3* Top Daily Play A's Under (7.5), Yankees (+110), Warriors (+2)!
Complimentary MLB Premium for Sunday: 5/12/2013:
Oakland Under (7') [ Milone/Saunders ] for 3 Units *** Winner
A's/Mariners 4:10: Good value with the "under" based on some pretty strong spot trends. The A's, which
this season have hit lefties well, should continue a recent struggle driving in runs with Crisp and Reddick
on the DL. Moreover, Joe Saunders, who has gotten battered on the road this season, sports a sweet
0.81 ERA at Safeco; furthermore, Saunders controls a very respectable 13-6 mark with a 3.57 ERA
against Oakland. On the other hand, the Mariners sport a sluggish .238 BA against lefties and have
recently gotten virtually nothing out of their cleanup hitter Morse -- stuck in a 1 of 18 slump. The A's
starter Milone is 1-5 O/U against Seattle. This series is 4-10 O/U in Seattle. And the home plate umpire
Bellinos is 15-34-2 O/U in his last 51. "Under" the call.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Monday: 5/6/2013:
Golden State Under (203') for 2 Units ** Loss
Golden State/San Antonio 9:35: Tendencies reveal that this game would be lower scoring than the
posted total. The Warriors are 3-9 O/U under Jackson when 3+ days rest and 2-5 O/U on the road
against a team with a winning home record. Moreover, this series is 1-4 O/U in San Antonio, including
combined totals of 197, 183 and 198 over the last three games, respectively. The Spurs are 0-5-1 O/U
on 3+ days rest and 5-11 O/U coming off SU win of 10+. We'll look for two the of Western Conference's
best coaches -- Jackson and Popovich to have their men well prepared defensively. Value with the
"Under".
Complimentary NBA Premium for Friday: 5/3/2013:
Oklahoma City (+1') for 2.5 Units **' Winner
Oklahoma City/Houston 9:35: It's about time for Okla City to adjust to life without Westbrook. Houston's
defense, which was below the NBA average during the regular season in allowing 103 points per game,
has at times doubled and even tripled Durant. We'll look for the basketball IQ to kick in for the Thunder
tonight as Durant should get more scoring support. On the other hand, the hot shooting Rockets' field
goal percentage is bound to cool down. Perimeter based teams which rely on three point shots routinely
gradually fade against well disciplined defenses. I don't believe Houston can sustain the high percentage
they're shooting. The Thunder are 8-1 ATS on the road against winning home teams and 22-8 ATS off
an ATS loss. Moreover, they're 10-4 ATS after allowing 100+. OC the call.
Complimentary NBA Playoff Premium for Tuesday: 4/30/2013:
Memphis (+5') for 2.5 Units **' Winner
Grizzlies/Clippers 10:35: I don't like how Del Negro is utilizing his bench and his defensive scheme is
questionable. Los Angeles has the bench advantage with veteran players but they're not utilized in the
prime spots. And it was apparent in the last two games that Randolph and Gasol were having their way
inside the paint without much resistance from the tall and athletic frontline of Los Angeles. The Grizzlies'
defense, however, is disciplined. We'll look for the Memphis winning momentum to carry over tonight.
Memphis is 5-1 ATS after scoring 100+ and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road tilts. The Clippers, however,
are a mere 5-11 ATS off a SU loss of 10+ and have shown tendencies of playing confused off these big
losses. And uncertainty will cause hesitation which leads to confusion and mistakes/turnovers. We'll look
for Memphis to stay poised on the road and continue to cover in this series (4-2 ATS in series).
Complimentary NBA Playoff Premium for Wednesday: 4/24/2013:
Los Angeles Lakers Under (188') for 2 Units ** Loss
Lakers/Spurs 9:35: Spurs defense was solid in Game 1 but defensive minded Popovich knows there is
plenty of room for improvement. And give Popovich and the Spurs two days to prepare, they're likely to
get it done defensively; after all, San Antonio is 1-11 O/U with 2 days rest. The Spurs know they could
have done a better job in the low block where Los Angeles banged out 40 points. And the Lakers'
perimeter shooting should continue to dry up. World Peace and Nash are battling knee and hip injuries
which limits their lift and mobility. On the other hand, the Lakers' defense should adjust to the 17 fast
break points they allowed. Los Angeles is 17-35 O/U on 2 days rest. This series is 6-20 O/U and 7-21
O/U in San Antonio. Value still with "Under".
Complimentary MLB Premium for Sunday: 4/21/2013:
Los Angeles Angels (-112) for 2.5 Units **' Winner
Tigers/Angels 3:35: Angels starting to show signs of improvement at the plate. Los Angeles has driven in
24 runs over last three games. We'll look for Los Angeles to follow up with run production on Fister who is
just 3-7 on the road when the total is set at 7 to 8'. Los Angeles is on a 6-0 run in this series and sports a
38-14 run at home vs the Tigers. We'll look for southpaw C.J. Wilson to keep the Tigers' bats cold.
Detroit controls a poor 6-18 mark vs lefties. Angels the call.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Wednesday: 4/17/2013:
Houston Over (203') for 3 Units *** Loss
Los Angeles 10:35: A concern with Houston's defense as they prepare for playoffs. Their seeding is still
in question and in danger of dropping to #8 if Los Angeles wins tonight. Los Angeles, the big market
team, is definitely getting the benefit of the doubt from referees over the last few games; after all, the free
throw disparity is quite evident if you look at the numbers. And I don't believe that will change tonight.
We'll look for free throws, which aid "over" players, to be abundant tonight -- with Los Angeles getting a
major share of the helping hand. The Lakers' defense, however, is a sore spot and should allow the
Rockets to stay in this one. This series has been high scoring at Staples Center in the last five games to
the tune of an average of 219 with range of 207 to 222. Like the value with the "over".
Complimentary NBA Premium for Sunday: 4/14/2013:
Dallas (-3) for 3 Units *** Winner
Dallas/New Orleans 6:00: Dallas will not be going to the playoffs but they're still battling to reach .500 and
bring out the razors. New Orleans, however, should show weakness defensively in their interior and coast
through their remaining games now that #1 overall selection Anthony Davis (knee sprain) is on the shelf.
Mavericks are a solid 20-6 ATS on the road and 8-2 ATS vs a team with a winning % less than .400. And
although New Orleans is showing fight, Dallas has covered 4 of its last 5 and should close strong here.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Friday: 4/5/13:
Memphis (+2') for 2 Units ** Winner
Grizzlies/Lakers 10:35: I realize the importance of this game for the Lakers, which are desperately trying
to hold on to the final playoff spot in the West; however, Memphis is looking to improve their seeding too.
The Grizzlies are battling Denver for the West's #4 seed. Whereas the Lakers are battling through
injuries to key personnel (Nash & World Peace)the Grizzlies are relatively healthy. Zach Randolph is
elevating his game and Tayshaun Prince has been a solid addition on both sides of the floor since
coming over from Detroit. And I like the backcourt matchup with Conley and Allen over Blake and Meeks.
We'll look for the Grizzlies to deliver again in this series.
Complimentary NCAA Sweet 16 for Friday: 3/29/13:
Florida Gulf Coast (+13) for 2.5 Units **' Winner
FGCU/Florida 9:55: Respectable value with the upstart Eagles who can spread the floor well, create open
looks and transition superbly; moreover, their defense has improved dramatically in post-season action;
as a matter of fact, the Eagles have held opponents below 45% in 14 of their last 16 games; furthermore,
they've locked down opponents to 39.3% over their last 5 games. And Georgetown and San Diego State
are no slouches. I do, however, realize this will be FGCU's strongest test of the tourney. The Gators can
run, defend and play a half court game extremely well; however, the Eagles have confidence and playing
relaxed with efficiency on both ends of the floor. FGCU's PG Brett Comer is dishing the ball at an amazing
rate while Sherwood Brown and Bernard Thompson have consistently played at a high level all month.
Florida will have the size advantage but we'll look for the Eagles to space the floor and utilize their
athleticism when the Gators' bigs are in. With the Eagles at 9-0 ATS on a neutral floor, we'll look for
FGCU to cover.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Monday: 3/18/2013:
Boston (+5') for 3 Units *** Winner
Miami/Boston 8:05: Sure, Miami heard the Celtics' players dismiss their 22 game win streak and will
clearly be up for this game; however, physically, the Heat may be running on fumes late. Miami is playing
in its third road game in four days and not the deepest of NBA benches. The Celtics are dangerous at
home and will probably see, at least, Garnett (adductor) dress and attempt to play to give Boston a
psychological boost. We all know Boston stopped Houston's 22 game streak in 2007-08 and the Celtics'
pride remains high. The Heat sport a poor 2-11 ATS mark in Boston and we'll grab the points at home
where Boston has covered 10 of its last 11.
Complimentary NCAA Hoops Premium for Friday 3/8/2013
Kent State (+9) for 2 Units ** Winner
Kent State/Akron 7:00: Akron has had a nice run this season -- mainly to the superior point guard play of
Alex Abreu and the inside presence of Zeke Marshall. Abreu (suspended), however, will be forced to
defer his spot to inexperienced Carmelo Betancourt who has one start with season stats of 1.8 ppg and
1.4 apg. We're going to look for the Zips' chemistry to be altered and struggle against the hungry
Flashes. Kent State is on a 5-1 ATS run and sport a respectable 9-3 ATS road ledger. They're 0-5 ATS
in their last 5 vs Akron but should be able to sneak inside the number tonight with the sudden dramatic
event of the Abreu arrest.
Stephen Curry and the Warriors (+1) we went against Thursday and it paid
dividends en route to our 3-0 sweep!
dividends en route to our 3-0 sweep!
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